when you can buy made-to-order DVDs?

So instead of having to buy 5, 6, 7, or more season sets that
can cost a small fortune, to get the episodes you want, you
could just go to the studio's web site and order say the 8 or 10
episodes you want and they sell you the DVD(s) in one package.

I know eventually there will be complete TV on demand. Any movie,
TV show, sporting event, etc... you want and at any time of day
but do you think the made-to-order DVDs will be the next step
in that direction?

James :)

Oh, I LOVE that idea!!

Oh yeah. Not only is that a great idea, but a seemingly natural progression of the technology.

I can see it being like downloading songs. You'd be able to access a studio's site, download your episodes on DVD, and then pay a fee. Of course, with greed being a motivating force at the studios, the cost may be prohibitive. If they all realized that a reasonable price can bring profits up based on QUANTITY, then it would be an awesome idea.

Man, there's plenty of series where I'd like just a few representative episodes for my collection. I can't see buying the whole run of The A-Team when I just want an episode or two for fun.

Downloadable DVD files are already becoming commonplace. Just download the audio and video files to your harddrive, load up a blank DVD, and use your burning software to create a video DVD. Simple.

I think that on-demand downloads of episodes is not that far off.

I know eventually there will be complete TV on demand. Any movie,
TV show, sporting event, etc... you want and at any time of day
but do you think the made-to-order DVDs will be the next step
in that direction?

James :)

About video-on-demand (VOD)...that idea is turning out to be surprisingly unpopular. I've recently taken an interest in reading articles about why VOD seems to be such a non-starter. There was a popular belief among studios and tech types that VOD would be the greatest thing since sliced bread. Yet, even as technology has advanced rapidly on this front, the general public seems almost entirely unmoved.

So far, I've seen one very good and very logical explanation: pride of ownership. For whatever reason, even if it's purely psychological, people want to PHYSICALLY OWN their favorite TV show or movie. They want to hold something in their hands which they can proclaim as their own personal property.

I would liken to this to the prediction of Larry Ellis (is that his name...the guy who heads ORACLE) some years ago that the desktop computer would be on it's way out. He stated, with solid technological reasoning, that there was no need for people to actually own software or even own any significant hardware. He felt it was much more locical for people just to own small, network boxes from which they could connect to a network and access (for a fee) all of the software and computing power they needed. Technologically a solid idea...except that people LIKE TO OWN their own software and big ugly computers.

Regarding your made-to-order DVD...wouldn't surprise me at all.

The bad thing about TV or DVD "on demand" (and I agree that it will happen) is that it will prohibit producers from investing real time, talent, and money into new television series. If this board had existed even 15 years ago, we would all probably be watching pretty much the same TV shows, or we would at least be familiar with all of those shows because there would only be a few outlets on our TV dial. As it stands now, I've never even seen half the current TV series that get discussed on these boards - mainly because there is already way too much on the dial for me to invest even 5 minutes of my time toward a series that I don't feel I'm already predisposed toward. Furthermore, TV on demand pretty well cuts out commercial sponsorship across the board which will make it that much more expensive. I think TV on Demand and DVD on Demand will eventually result in much weaker new product and such a fragmentation of the audience that it might not be economically viable for customers or producers in the long run - at least as far as episodic series are concerned. And I don't think TV especially is all that analogous to the music business.

Buying pre-printed, hard copies of movies or music will once day go the way of the 8-track, vinyl, the do-do, etc. It may take the better part of ten years but the infrastructure to do so is beginning now.

Think about it, all you're dealing with really is digital information.

Hard drives will come down in price and up in capacity. Your recorder might have a big plug in HD. You could download from your TV cable and get the pay movie you want, when you want. Instead of buying VHS or recordable CDs or DVDs just buy another big HD for 40 bucks.

i gotta agre with brent on this one. its a matter of percieved value. people want to hold their prize in its fancy printed case in their hot little hands. (same reason that the 2 recent attempts at $1 coins have flopped. people percieve paper money as more valuable than coins, and therefore prefer the folding version.) so until people percieve disembodied data as something more desireable than a physical object, it wont fly.

Perhaps this ownership of the object is a generational thing?
I still own vinyl records, and rarely listen to them, but I wont part with them either.
A lot of younger consumers today love MP3 and want the music not the package.
Perhaps the music industry shrinking the LP to CD has lost the 'art' of covers for music. I know I never stare and study at CD covers for lenghty periods like I used to with LPs.
Younger consumers will embrace 'network phantom' video products just like they have MP3 players for music I think.
In the UK hard drive video is on the up. Combined with the rise of DVD the death of VHS can't be far off.
Due to the (at the moment) smaller memory of hard drive recorders and quality issues with pushing the memory, the best solution is a combo hard drive and DVD burner deck. On board editing to remove adverts so that you can create your own top quality DVDs and then reuse the memory for the next project.

Jim

Perhaps this ownership of the object is a generational thing?

A lot of younger consumers today love MP3 and want the music not the package.

Younger consumers will embrace 'network phantom' video products just like they have MP3 players for music I think.

Jim

I think MP3 is probably a bad model to use in this case.

In my experience (which may be limited compared to others), the overwhelming majority of MP3 music is free (even if it's not intended to be that way). It may be old public domain stuff, it may be pirated, it may just be intended to be free. Whatever the reason, young "consumers" are probably not paying for it. And, in those cases where they are paying for, it's exceptionally cheap. Nine tracks of music could cost you $15.00+ if purchased on a CD.

It's not that young consumers are more interested in the music and don't care about the packaging. It's the fact MP3 allows you to build a $1000.00 music collection for next to nothing.

High quality VOD will require a lot of studio cooperation and a lot of hardware investment by providers. While I'm sure the service will be provided at a reasonable cost, it will still cost something...and it will be competing against a product which is already very low cost. When you can own an entire season of TV for $35.00, will video on demand be such a good deal? If I can OWN 38 epsodes (16 hours) of THE MUNSTERS for under $40.00, can VOD offer such a better deal that they would become a really attractive alternative?

Even if the studios offered these products cheap for download so that you could save your own copies to hard disk (or any other media) would it ever (in our generation or the generation of our children) be that much more attractive. DVD is marketable to anybody with a TV set and $39.00 for a player. That makes it accessible to the most economically disadvantaged or technologically challenged.

It's not that young consumers are more interested in the music and don't care about the packaging. It's the fact MP3 allows you to build a $1000.00 music collection for next to nothing.
Perhaps true. Much as I still buy CDs, and I do agree I prefer the feeling having it in my hands, I also have 6.22GB of downloaded oldies since I discovered file sharing. Don't tell anybody :D. I transferred them to my PC at work, and now I don't have to carry CDs back and forth to listen to at work. I explained this technological wonder to a woman at work, and she had an immediate and powerful resistive response - "NO! I need to touch the CDs, feel them in my hands, read the liner notes!!"

when you can buy made-to-order DVDs?

So instead of having to buy 5, 6, 7, or more season sets that
can cost a small fortune, to get the episodes you want, you
could just go to the studio's web site and order say the 8 or 10
episodes you want and they sell you the DVD(s) in one package.

I know eventually there will be complete TV on demand. Any movie,
TV show, sporting event, etc... you want and at any time of day
but do you think the made-to-order DVDs will be the next step
in that direction?

James :)
I personally feel that some day, this will be possible. I still prefer to buy my dvds and have them rather than give into pay on demand TV. You'll be at the mercy of the cable/satellite charges not to mention that we may see the 3x4 shows go by the wayside in a few years after the widescreen becomes the standard format. I believe it's best to buy them now while you still can and watch them over and over as much as you want without having to pay.

I'm wondering with all of the DVD's that are being pushed out now if they have put in any kind of copy protection. Some day, there will be home DVD burners and we currently have DVD camcorders. What is to stop anyone from borrowing someone's dvd set and making copies of those episodes you want and trade others. It's happening now with music dvd's. Within a year, there will be home dvd burners capable of recording backups for homemade dvds.

There are already home DVD burners. I have one in my PC and
I have a DVD Player/Recorder with my HDTV.

Now my DVD player/recorder won't copy DVDs, but if you get
two DVD units (one like that Apex described in the other thread
that you can disable the copyprotect, and a regular DVD recorder,
like mine) you can copy DVDs now.

BTW, what my original post meant was that you would order
whatever you wanted from the studios and they would mail
you the made-to-order DVDs.

James :)

You can "backup" dvds now as long as you have a dvd burner in your computer. Complete backup of menus, special features everything. Even if you download movies and music you can still "have it in your hands". Just burn to a dvd-r of cd-r. There are templates for downloading and printing the covers too. I'd like to see studios use downloading for stuff they don't want to actually release. I haven't checked out movie downloads but .99 cents is probably the top charge. As for music, the sites I've checked out charge by the month(legal). All you can download for $1-2 a month. Including entire albums. As soon as I figure out this SonicStage software that converts the MP3 to music cd files, I'm going to download and burn all the good stuff I can find.

You're all OLD PEOPLE, and your need to have a tangible BOX with colored printing is an anachronism. Buying music through online services is taking off quite nicely. Netflix could switch to digital distribution in a second. Writing's on the wall.

When the swing to all digital all the time shows up you will still be able to burn your own copies through some form of media.

Just a thought.

You're all OLD PEOPLE,...

Writing's on the wall.


You are making the common mistake of youth. In fact, it's the common mistake of every generation.

Every generation assumes that, because they have developed the technology to do something, it will automatically come to pass. Truth is, that rarely happens. Things change when the public perceives a NEED for change. And the need for change, not the technology for change is what drives change.

Forty years ago, we developed the technology to build passenger planes that flew at twice the speed of sound. We assumed, without exception, that this would be the dominant form of passenger travel by the year 1973. The public, apparently, didn't see that need.

In 1968, the NASA OFFICE OF MANNED SPACE FLIGHT put forth a timetable stating, "The landing of the Mars mission in 1981 would be followed by nine further landings during the period of 1981-1988. The crew of six to eight men would spend from 10 to 40 days on Mars". Nasa had the technology...the public waasn't interested.

Every generation thinks that their new technology will take the world by storm. When I got my driver's license during the FIRST energy crisis, we all knew that fossil fuels would run out by 1995 and we'd be driving electric cars by now...though, strangely enough, the V-8 engine in my car today is pretty much the same design that was in my dad's '61 Pontiac.

When you're young, things seem to be changing at a break-neck pace. When you get older...not so much. 10 years ago, I sat in this very room, typing messages on a computer. It was a 386 and the messages went out on Fidonet. My music collection was on CD. I own the same three cars that I owned in '94. I own the same suits and sports coats.

10 years from now, YOU will be sitting in a room, typing messages on your Pentium 16 computer. You'll be driving a car with an internal combustion engine. You'll still have to tie a Windsor knot when you get dressed up. And you'll still be watching DVDs.

And some teenager will tell how the technology of HIS generation will change your life. You'll smile at him knowingly and say , "Sure thing, sonny" :).

Great Thread
In 1968, the NASA OFFICE OF MANNED SPACE FLIGHT put forth a timetable stating, "The landing of the Mars mission in 1981 would be followed by nine further landings during the period of 1981-1988. The crew of six to eight men would spend from 10 to 40 days on Mars". Nasa had the technology...the public waasn't interested.


They only thought they had the technology. They had no real idea about the problems involved in Mars trips.(They didn't know what they didn't know) Much of the tech info came from Mir, Skylab, and the Shuttle fleet.
Trips to Mars would still be a stretch today. The main problem is irradiation of the crew. Anti radiation technology is thick lead, or a big tank of water. This is very heavy. Ist you have to get it into orbit then get it to Mars and back.
The mission (as all space missions are / were) is very weight dependant.
The lunar lander was really small and took an Apollo 5 to get it there. It was as light as it could be made. Now imagine it with lead shielding...

Jim

The main problem is irradiation of the crew.

Jim

We could get WAY off-topic here because this deserves it's own thread (hey, HOBBYTALK should have a "Technology" BB where we can talk things only peripheraly related to modelling...like Trek technology or this subject).

Briefly: I strongly recommend the book THE CASE FOR MARS by Robert Zubrin with forward by Arthur C. Clarke. The subject of radiation is covered, complete with tables and graphs. the short version, quoting from that book (copyright 1996):

"Assuming these astronauts don't smoke, the chance of them dying of cancer if they did NOT go to Mars is about 20 percent. Therefore, by taking the dose associated with the trip, they increased their cancer risk from 20 percent to somewhat less than 21 percent."

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/special/03/mars/jump/2356898

Radiation, particularly from cosmic rays, pose a high health risk in deep space, so much so that NASA has established a radiation laboratory that uses high energy beams to study the effects of heavy ion particles on biological specimens.

Walter Shimmerling, a NASA radiation expert, said high energy particles from supernovae that exploded in our galaxy permeate interplanetary space.

"They are considered to be much more destructive biologically than common X-rays or gamma rays," Shimmerling said. "The particle acts like a very tiny bullet going through a living cell."

It can damage DNA and cause a cell to die or turn cancerous.

AND

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/3559612.stm

Let 'em get sick and fix it later...

Nice.

Jim

I own the same three cars that I owned in '94. I own the same suits and sports coats.

10 years from now, YOU will be sitting in a room, typing messages on your Pentium 16 computer. You'll be driving a car with an internal combustion engine. You'll still have to tie a Windsor knot when you get dressed up. And you'll still be watching DVDs.

And some teenager will tell how the technology of HIS generation will change your life. You'll smile at him knowingly and say , "Sure thing, sonny" :).

brent im 44, not a teenager by any stretch, and must respectfully disagree with you there. today, as we were watching cable tv one one monitor and cable internet on another (provided by the same company) my brother and i were speculating how long it was going to be before they were merged into one service coming thru a single computer (i think at that point the "movies on demand" thing will happen. what were you watching your movies on 10 years ago? or 10 years before that?

beyond that i have 2 words for you... "mens warehouse"....

Radiation, particularly from cosmic rays, pose a high health risk in deep space



Jim

Again, I recommend the aforementioned book which specifically adresses radiation from cosmic rays and solar flares. The above statement that "cosmic rays, pose a high health risk in deep space" tells us nothing we don't already know.

The estimated cosmic radiation exposure for a Mars trip is 50 rem. The National Academy of Sciences study on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation estimates your chances of cancer increase at a rate of 1.8% for every 100 rem received over a 30 year period.

The things you have quoated tell us nothing new. Ionizing radiation CAN damage DNA and cause cancer (so can sunshine, a good cigar and diesel exhaust). NASA conducts ongoing studies on this an all other space health related issues.

Quoting Zubrin's book again:

"By the way, contrary to the scare-mongering of certain people who would like to obtain large research budgets in this area, there is nothing extraordinary about cosmic radiation doses as opposed to other types of radiation doses."

With specific reference to cosmic radiation from a Mars trip:

"...we can fly a crew to Mars and return them home with radiation doses limited to 50 rem or so. While not recommended to the general public, they represent a small fraction of the total risk of not only space travel, but such common recreations as mountain climbing or sailboarding. Radiation hazards are not a show stopper for a piloted Mars Mission."

... my brother and i were speculating how long it was going to be before they were merged into one service coming thru a single computer ...

And this harkens back (yikes, did I just use the term "harkens back"?) to my earlier comment that we shouldn't assume that technological capability will bring about technological change.

In 1992, my mother went to work for an aircraft firm in Reno for about 4 months. She announced that she was buying a small fax machine to commnicate with people back home. I protested and gave her a lengthy speech about the impending death of the fax machine.

I knew the fax machine couldn't possibly last another year or two on the market. Basic PC's were already beng delivered with fax software. Who in their right mind would spend $150.00 on a stand alone fax machine when we were getting that capability installed in our computers as standard equipment. By 1994 or '95, the standalone fax was sure to be as obsolete as the slide rule I used in high school (yes, I used a slide rule in school).

Of course, today I got a load of flyers in the mail from all of the office supply places with back-to-school sales. Not surprising, they've got about 20 brand new models of stand alone fax machines.

People have to understand the way simple supply and demand drives change and not technology. For at least three years now, I have visited the home theater forum and seen somebody predict , "We'll have HD-DVD by this Christmas" (going back to 2001). Their belief is based on their knowledge that the technolgy to make HD-DVD exists. Trouble is: not a lot of people have HDTV's, Studios aren't satisfied with copy-protection, no standard interface has been agreed on...

We (the people populating bulletin boards) live in world where everybody communicates with computer and this is very normal for us. But the general marketplace isn't driven by us. The OVERWHELMING market is still those chubby women dragging kids around the aisles at the Wal Mart. They will decide when we get video on demand.

You can "backup" dvds now as long as you have a dvd burner in your computer. Complete backup of menus, special features everything.
Although there is a dropoff in quality, at least for now; most DVDs are dual-layer discs and most DVDs you can burn on your computer are single-layer. There are dual-layer burners coming on the market now, and they are surprisingly affordable -- but the media for dual-layer discs is still ridiculously expensive, if you can find it. But from what I've seen, single-layer burns compressed from dual-layer discs usually still look quite good. I'd guess they're about on par with digital satellite (Dish Network, DirecTV) quality.
Even if you download movies and music you can still "have it in your hands". Just burn to a dvd-r of cd-r. There are templates for downloading and printing the covers too.
Yes, but this costs money and effort. Plenty of people have CDs lying around that they have to actually play to determine the contents, because they never got around to labelling them.
As soon as I figure out this SonicStage software that converts the MP3 to music cd files, I'm going to download and burn all the good stuff I can find.
Or you could download Apple's free iTunes music program (yes, it is available for Windows if you just insist on punishing yourself ;) ). It can convert the files for you, and is dirt-simple to use.

Qapla'

SSB

Briefly: I strongly recommend the book THE CASE FOR MARS by Robert Zubrin with forward by Arthur C. Clarke.

OK OK I'll find the book :)

Thanks!

Jim

Roxio Easy CD Creator (came with my Gateway) makes music CDs from MP3s, WMA, WAV, whatever. Don't need no silly Mac software.

Anyone else having having an awful hard time finding blank 8-tracks? I have to tape the next King Biscuit Flower Hour.

Anyone else having having an awful hard time finding blank 8-tracks? I have to tape the next King Biscuit Flower Hour.
There's a local AM conservative talk show that runs the occasional disclaimer: "Copies of this program are not available on 8-Track tape."

Roxio Easy CD Creator (came with my Gateway) makes music CDs from MP3s, WMA, WAV, whatever. Don't need no silly Mac software.
I've used it; I'll pass. iTunes can manipulate all those formats except, possibly, the WMA stuff. I was trying to find a solution that was free -- I don't see what good it does him to know what software came with your computer, so ha! ;)

Qapla'

SSB

Netflix could switch to digital distribution in a second.
How very bizarre that this was posted here so recently that the virtual ink hardly had time to dry -- just a couple of hours ago I heard a news report that TiVo is announcing plans to allow users of their service to download movies from Netflix.

Chris, do any insider trading much? :D

Qapla'

SSB